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Data Report 1
High Country
Demographics and Statistics
This is the first in a continuing
series of articles meant to provide demographic data
and statistics to local officials and local interests
to assist in their decision-making efforts.
Population in
the High Country-Past, Present, Projected
Where
to Get the Facts
Two primary sources of information on the composition
of the inhabitants of North Carolina are the Bureau
of the Census which takes an actual count of the population
April 1st of years ending in zero and the
State Demographics Unit which uses trends from the two
most recent Censuses and computer modeling to make estimates
and projections for the intervening and coming years.
This report will look at the 1990 and 2000 Census counts
and trends anticipated by the Demographics Unit for
the High Country over the next 30 years.
In making estimates
for 2010, 2020, and 2030, the State Demographics Unit
is foreseeing the following patterns Statewide: the number of births will fall slightly from
current levels and then rise later in spite of fertility
rates remaining constant, the overall aging of the population
will cause the number of deaths to increase, and in-migration
will continue at its current pace. In addition, there are 13 counties in the State
with one or more institutions (universities, prisons,
military bases) having populations that require special
consideration (Avery and Watauga
Counties
are among the group). The institutional populations
in the High Country are seen as remaining near their
2000 levels throughout the projection period.
What
Was
From 1990 to 2000, North Carolina
grew over 21% in population.
Children 0 to 17 years increased by 22%, the
group deemed as 'just entering the labor force' (18-34)
grew 5%, 'older workers' (35-64) increased by 26%, and
the 65 and older segment grew by 20%.
In the High Country, the 0 to 17 years cohort
group grew by 5.6%, the 35-64 years group 25%, seniors
65 and older were up by 18% but the 18-34 sector declined
by 2%. The Region
collectively grew by 12%.
What
May Be
Over the next 30 years, the Demographics Unit expects
a 54.6% increase in North Carolina
population, nearly two-thirds of which will come from
in-migration. For the same period the High Country is expected
to grow 23.1% and will decline from 2.4% of the State's
population in 2000 to 1.9% in 2030, a statistic that
will have a bearing on the distribution of shared State
revenues later.
By population
segment over the 30-year period, the State is expecting
a 44% increase in 0-17 year olds, a 40 % jump in 18-34
year olds, a 48% rise in 35 to 64 year olds, and a 129%
growth in seniors, 65 years and older.
Comparatively, the High Country is to note a
10% boost in the 0-17 year bracket, a 5% addition to
those 18-34 years of age, 13% more people 35 to 64,
and a 98% increase to the Region's senior citizens.
What
the Numbers Mean
Another vital role for these projections is in planning
for the future. By
2030, an additional 35,000 people will need housing,
medical care, food, clothing, and drinking water. Some will need classroom space, most will need
jobs, 25,000 more drivers will be on our roads, there
will be an increased demand for electric power, and
more pressure will be placed on natural resources.
On average, everywhere we have four of anything
now, by 2030 we will need at least five, and in some
instances demand will more than double.
While
this interpretation of how the High Country will appear
in 30 years, may need tweaking over time due to unforeseen
events and changes in its basic assumptions, it does
present a State-recognized starting point from which
to begin defining ounces of prevention before pounds
of cure are necessary.
For
further information:
The Bureau of the Census has all of the year 2000 enumeration
released to date on its website at www.census.gov
. From the homepage,
the 'Your Gateway to Census 2000' link leads to the,
'American FactFinder' and 'State and County
QuickFacts'
pages which provide tabulations for various levels of
geography.
The State
Data Center,
located at http://sdc.state.nc.us, provides access to
NC-specific Census information and Log Into North Carolina. LINC offers county-level data on a variety of
topics going back in as far as 1970 and state-comparison
profiles for the present.
The State
Demographics Unit is located on the web at www.demog.state.nc.us .The site offers
certified population estimates for towns and counties
as well as the projections cited here, and a 'More Census'
link that includes maps down to the block level.
High
Country Council of Governments maintains information
from these and other sources for each of its member
governments on its website.
Click on the Demographics and Statistics' link
at www.regiond.org
.
Data
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